The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Round 22 of the 2023 AFL season.
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At the time of writing the biggest Draftstars contest for this round is the $60,000 competition for the Friday night clash between Collingwood and Geelong. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.
Collingwood vs. Geelong
Neither team has been firing on all cylinders over the last few weeks. The Pies will be without Brownlow Medal candidate Nick Daicos for six weeks while Geelong have injury woes of their own. I will back a close contest. Neither side has suffered a 40+ defeat over the last twelve months and 11 of the last 12 meetings between the two were settled by 1-39 points. Narrowing it down further, 9 of the last 10 meetings between the two were settled by 1-24 points. I would back both Collingwood 1-39 at 2.35 (Dabble) and Geelong 1-39 at 2.60 (Dabble). Those looking for more risk should consider pairing Collingwood 1-24 at 3.30 (Dabble) with Geelong 1-24 at 3.60 (Dabble).
Sydney vs. Gold Coast
Sydney have kept their finals hopes alive with a four-game winning streak that included a crucial away win over GWS last week. Gold Coast’s season is now over and their undoing has been their away form. They have lost five consecutive away games and they have gone 1-8, both in the line and the head-to-head, as the away underdog over the last twelve months. Sydney have a 5-2 record, both in the head-to-head and the line, as the home favourite against Gold Coast over the last decade. Seven of Gold Coast’s eight away defeats over the last twelve months were by 25+ margins. I would back Sydney in the head-to-head at 1.41 (Betfair). Those looking for more risk should consider Sydney -19.5 at 1.91 (bet365).
Brisbane vs. Adelaide
This is another game where the venue plays a large roll in the pick. Brisbane have won eleven on the trot at home, while Adelaide have lost six consecutive away games. Nine of Adelaide’s eleven defeats over the last twelve months have been by 1-39 margins and over the last decade, Brisbane’s three wins over Adelaide were all by 1-39 margins. I would back Brisbane in the head-to-head at 1.40 (Betfair). Those looking for more risk should consider Brisbane 1-39 at 2.20 (Dabble).
Carlton vs. Melbourne
This should be a competitive contest. Carlton bring a six-game winning streak into this clash, while Melbourne have won five on the trot. Carlton fans wont need reminding that they have lost eight in a row to the Demons and this game will be played at the MCG, where Melbourne have gone 10-1 in the head-to-head and 8-3 at the line this season. Nine of Carlton’s ten defeats over the last twelve months were by 1-39 points, while seven of Melbourne’s eight defeats were by 1-24 points. I would wager 0.35 units on Carlton 1-24 at 3.75 (Dabble) and 0.65 units on Melbourne 1-39 at 2.20 (BlueBet).
Carlton have played seven times at the MCG this season for an average total score of 143.7, while Melbourne have played eleven times for an average total of 174.8. Given their last four meetings went under the total and their last game in June saw just 105 total points, I would back under 175.5 in the Alternative Match Total market at 1.50 (bet365).
St Kilda vs. Richmond
This should be competitive, but St Kilda have more to play than the 13th placed Richmond. Another factor is this game will be played at Marvel Stadium, a venue where the Tigers have gone 1-1-6 in the head-to-head and 0-8 at the line since May, 2021. Both teams lost last week and it’s worth noting that St Kilda have gone 7-3 on the back of a defeat over the last twelve months, while Richmond have gone 3-1-6 on the back of a defeat. Over the last decade, the Saints have gone 5-1-1 as the favourite against the Tigers. I would back St Kilda in the head-to-head at 1.92 (Betfair). Those looking for more risk should consider St Kilda 1-39 at 2.40 (Dabble).